Autonomous vehicle roadmap: 2015-2030

[scott_e]

The end is nigh .... apparently .....

Ongoing argument I have with a colleague. People like me (and SE members indeed) will always love to drive special cars on fun roads is my point almost no matter what the expense. I make the argument this will still be the case in 20 years. Cue the latest rebuff below
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Ref: http://www.driverless-future.com/?p=678
[snippets]
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2022 Insurance rates favour operating cars in fully autonomous mode and prompt many people to stop driving on their own.

2023 Most companies require that business trips with rental cars must occur in fully autonomous mode (for safety and productivity reasons).

2030 Car ownership has declined dramatically. Only 20% of the US population still own a car (200 cars for 1000 people, today: 439 cars for 1000 people). 90% of all trips now happen in fully autonomous mode. Traffic accidents and fatalities have declined dramatically.
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I recall there was a press article recently documenting in detail that the number of people learning to drive has for the first time declined. The reasons were varied:
- expensive to learn.
- expensive to run a car.
- public transport is better.
- more people living in built up areas.
- more home working.

Driver less technology makes some sense in large city centres and for commuting to a degree I am sure but you still see horses on the roads today.

[thinfourth]

2021 Ford brings to market a car which is fully electric AND has a bean to cup coffee machine as well as button marked home

Thinfourth declares this to be the best invention in the history of the universe


2024 Thinfourth dies due to extreme caffeine poisoning

[scott_e]

Edited to add , I'm actually pretty surprised there are no strong opinions on autonomous vehicles on SE to be honest.

Maybe its just me that hates the idea.

[Dominic]

As long as we can continue to drive if we want to, I'll be quite happy. My merc can park itself (not that unusual these days) and spots other traffic doing things and comes up with warnings. It seems to be one step away from the machine taking over, but I am still still in charge. No doubt that chaange is on the way, but there must still be an allowance for licenced drivers to be in charge of their own cars,... I certainly hope I will still be allowed to drive my elise for years to come! Will they actually ban cars like the elise? - doubt it. Certainly hope not!!!

[thinfourth]

Edited to add , I'm actually pretty surprised there are no strong opinions on autonomous vehicles on SE to be honest.

Maybe its just me that hates the idea.

I think it is an utterly wonderful idea

Providing manual driving isn't banned so i can still drive antiques around i'll embrace it

As lets be honest

95% of driving is utterly tedious. Staring at the back of some god awful 14 foot of chrome plated FWD diesel powered dullness in stop start traffic isn't very fun


And if the car can take me home after a huge meal with a few glasses of red i'll be doubly delighted

[j2 lot]

I look forward to the day when those who drive because they need too, no longer need too.Then those of us who drive because we want too might encounter less half wits trundling along at 40 determined that none shall pass.

[Ferg]

Having autonomous cars will massively increase the number of cars on the road IMO. You won't have to have a license. People will use them as personal taxis etc.

It could also mean that people who do have a license but are dreadful drivers could opt for a safer alternative. I think it's that category where the most 'safety improvement' stats will happen.

[Kelvin]

The end is nigh .... apparently .....



Driver less technology makes some sense in large city centres and for commuting to a degree I am sure but you still see horses on the roads today.

But people ride horses for fun now not for transport or to carry out work so in a driver less car World maybe driving manual cars for fun will be the same as riding horses for fun or not. The challenge for sports car makers is whether future generations of people will still have the same interest in them and willing to buy them especially analogue sports cars like the Elise. My kids had a big gang of their friends round the house recently and were chatting about driving and cars. Out of 15 kids only my daughter was interested in driving and is the only one taking lessons. The others weren't for all the reasons you mentioned but mainly cost. Rachel's interest is in the independence it gives her as we live in the sticks.

I like the idea of driver less cars for commuting. Motorway driving should be far quicker if every car was automated. It seems people are incapable of driving in a straight line without crashing causing tailbacks. Plus the whole stop start snake would surely disappear if every car was autonomous. Motorway speed limits could be increased to 100mph+ with cars travelling a few feet apart just like the movies. Driver less cars will make great taxis as well. Available 24/7 with no grumpy arse sitting in the front. However, a lot of the benefit of this only works if every car is driver less and the transition from where we are now to then will take years unless there some massive industry/government subsidy to recycle your old car and replace with hybrid automated cars.

[Corranga]

Autonomous cars might be on the horizon, but I think cars that don't require a licence cars, and business promoting being productive whilst in the car is quite a bit further off in this health and safety concious world we live in. I'm sure you'd still have to be licenced to be able to get out of trouble when something fails, and things will fail. It will only take a one pile up with a death or two to set the technology back some more years - I know it's a grim thought, but all it will take is a sensor fail, or a satellite to go down, or a software crash... It seems very likely to me that this will happen.

I don't think they could ban older cars, though there may be a raise in zones where old school cars aren't allowed, much like the green zones in London. Given the level of driving I see on a regular basis, I can only see autonomous cars as a step in the right direction, and certainly something that we should embrace - one thing is for sue, it's going to happen and there isn't anything we can do to stop it!

As with everyone else, I do fear what it does to my hobby. Will the scenic routes suddenly be full of tourists with cameras hanging out the windows, will it stop the 40mph crew, or on twisties will it become worse as the automated care assumes a slower speed is the best way. Time will tell I guess.

[Shug]

Edited to add , I'm actually pretty surprised there are no strong opinions on autonomous vehicles on SE to be honest.

Maybe its just me that hates the idea.

I have very strong opinions on what it'll do to car enthusiasm - whilst we may not be banned outright, certainly most people will be priced out of the market, be that road tax, insurance, or whatever.

But usually when I get wound up about it, lots of folk just tell me to calm down dear and it won't be that bad, so I'll just push on and ride my bike while I'm still able...

[BiggestNizzy]

I like the idea of having an autonomous car, or Taxi like system like uber that I can use. I don't need anything fancy for my commute to work it's just me and my lunchbox. So the ability to have a small car pick me up from home and drop me off at work would be great. It could then go and spend the day ferrying people about. Then should I require it I could request something bigger to take the family off for a weeks holiday. Cars spend most of there time parked up, and when you drive it, you use it for transport.

When it comes for driving as a pleasurable activity this is becoming more and more difficult anyway. I don't see it being taken away but becoming more expensive as time goes on.

[Kelvin]

Shug, I doubt the worst of this will happen in your lifetime. What we might see is the transition from the mostly driving World to the mostly driver less World. What's worse is automated driverless drones. Once they are mainstream the Government will no longer repair the roads as there will be little need other than turning them into cycle lanes. We'll all be dead before that happens unless GSK come up with pills that stop us ageing but that will also cause a whole World of pain.

My local petrol station is an attended service i.e. an old geezer comes out and fills up your car for you. It must be one of the few petrol stations where you can still buy car spares like spark plugs and fanbelts but can't buy booze, bog roll, Krispy Kreme doughnuts or a coffee. It's like a little window into how the World used to be in the pre digital revolution days. As I get older I'm becoming more analogue I reckon and more frustrated with the increased complex computer says no digital World we live in. That said, I can control all the house lights from anywhere in the World which is a laugh when your other half is having some friends round and I'm changing the colour of the lights around the house and randomly switching them off and on.

[BiggestNizzy]

I would expect commercial drivers to take the first hit as money is more of an insentive, The technology will need to be 100% as a 40 ton lorry accidentally ploughing through a school is going to cost everyone.

[Kelvin]

I would expect commercial drivers to take the first hit as money is more of an insentive, The technology will need to be 100% as a 40 ton lorry accidentally ploughing through a school is going to cost everyone.

The technology won't be 100% as it's not possible but there will, no doubt, be similar safeguards and redundancy you see in the aviation industry. No matter how you cut it humans driving/flying anything are far riskier than machines doing likewise unless they eventually become sentient and decide we are a plague on the surface of the planet.

[jason]

For road transport, I'm not certain we'll ever see truly autonomous vehicles - at least not for many generations. But this depends on the interpretation of autonomous.

If we consider transport operating on a network system (so we ignore lifts, etc!) what present, or near future, form of human transportation is truly autonomous, ie. does not, at minimum, at least involve live monitoring/management by remote operatives?

…so it's hard to imagine a time when each vehicle would not require supervision/monitoring, and surely the volume of vehicles and routing options mean this can only be carried out by a responsible (and sober!) occupant. I'm sure remote monitoring will come, one day, of course.