Scottish Elises

What a waste of bloody time.

Local one yesterday and this morning was cloudy and rain all day, temp 15. It has been a scorcher all day so they changed it midday to sun and 21.

tut

There's an app for that....

The Met Office have just lost the contract to supply weather forecasts to the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34031785

Hopefully whoever gets the new contract will provide better weather for Scotland

It is a cost cutting exercise. The BBC want to get best value (read cheapest) forecasts. it is daft, because the Met Office is centrally funded anyway, so unless we decide that we don't need weather forecasting (e.g. the shipping forecasts) then we'll be paying for most of it anyway.

IMHO there is slim-to-no chance that the forecasts will improve in quality - the issue is not lack of talent - it is one of complexity - the UK's weather is very hard to model . There is also no chance that the forecasts for Scotland will be more detailed as that would cost more, not less (so many micro-climates to model).

Cheers,
Robin

There is a reason that the Met office give very very accurate forecasts in Iraq & Afganistan....

WindyWilson ftw.

tut

I could add to this thread as I work in the weather forecasting business, but I will not as the forecast as to who will get the contract will probably be as accurate as the Met Office forecast was for the NE over the weekend

In reality though the commercial relationship between the Met Office and the BBC has been far too cosy over the years and it does need airing out, although I did not expect the relationship to come to an end this time around. Of greater concern is the plight of the forecasters and how the forecast will be delivered by the new provider. There is much speculation and hot air circulating right now and I fully expect the polititians to come wading in with their 'opinion' on how things should be going forward as they try and carve themselves a little niche and 2 minutes in the spotlight....

M

I read it as the contact is now out to tender...... So in theory met office could still be the supplier? Unless I read it wrong.

Sent from a mobile device

Tender process has been done. Companies whittled down and final two known by process of elimination to others. By all accounts the decision has been made but not announced. It is def not the Met Office although they will hang on to some alert forecasts. M

You may not want to say on the forum but which of the forecasting companies do you work with in Aberdeen. Used quite a few over the years depending on the clients preferences and existing contracts. Being a shipping back ground man & on the only drillship to work West of Shetland for many years I have spent many hours studying the detailed forecasts that arrive every 6 hours along with the Senior Toolpusher going "Will we- Won't we?" Disconnect and start pulling riser that is! Now we are in warmer climes I have to say I don't miss the WoS weather lottery.

As a lay person coming into this conversation, I always suspect that the metoffice err on the side of caution (predict rain rather than sun..) which is exactly what's happening with their Dundee predictions at the moment.

I'm a slightly overweight office employee trying to use my bike and 6 mile commute to get fitter and maybe drop a bit of weight too. I can't be bothered cycling, so the slightest thing puts me off (ie, rain).
Check the forecast for Dundee on Sunday night before bed. Rain all week.
Come to work on Monday and my colleague asks me if I cycled, I said it was going to rain. She says, yeah, at 9pm.
I re-check the forecast, sunny all day, but raining Tuesday.
Exactly the same thing today, 10% change of rain at midday is the highest likelihood.

I believe the Metoffice has a personal vendetta against my fitness campaign

Corranga wrote:As a lay person coming into this conversation, I always suspect that the metoffice err on the side of caution (predict rain rather than sun..) which is exactly what's happening with their Dundee predictions at the moment.

I'm a slightly overweight office employee trying to use my bike and 6 mile commute to get fitter and maybe drop a bit of weight too. I can't be bothered cycling, so the slightest thing puts me off (ie, rain).
Check the forecast for Dundee on Sunday night before bed. Rain all week.
Come to work on Monday and my colleague asks me if I cycled, I said it was going to rain. She says, yeah, at 9pm.
I re-check the forecast, sunny all day, but raining Tuesday.
Exactly the same thing today, 10% change of rain at midday is the highest likelihood.

I believe the Metoffice has a personal vendetta against my fitness campaign

Couldn't agree more! If we had cancelled every game of golf, or trip out on the bikes with the wee guy, or any other day out due to the weather forecasting heavy rain we'd never have been out this summer!

Last Tuesday and Saturday prime examples - both times weather forecast a blanket of rain over east and central Scotland - with no escape. Tuesday we had a full 18 holes in Edinburgh with just a sprinkling of rain, Saturday we had a boys day out on the beach playing cricket/football/frisbee followed by putting championship on the putting green - not a spot of rain all day.

I'm not sure if there is less local knowledge in the Met office about Scotland now - or what the reason is, but it does seem to me that the forecasts are a lot less accurate?

Always interesting to see the wide variations between the different forecasts. Personally I swear by Windguru for accuracy, although as it's watersport-oriented and uses costal spot locations it's of less use inland. Never figured why a Czech-based site seems far more reliable than the likes of the Met Office. This summer however Scotty's method is as good as any

It's been an interest of mine since my flying instructor days. I would often start my day with a brief at the local Met office ( before the internet!). After a while, and with some local knowledge, you can predict surprisingly accurately the weather. But when, and where, that weather is can be more of a problem. It all about 'resolution' and, in a small mountainous country like Scotland, there's simply not enough detail in most public forecasts. But ask a forecaster for a specific location and they'll get it spot on most of the time.