Has anybody changed their vote about independence??

[steve_weegie]

Panic at the disco! All this FUD has made me change my mind. I dont want to be a thicko any more. I thought I had a modecum of common sense, but clearly not....

I don't see Spain using their veto to prevent Scotland joining the EU, and to my knowledge, no Spanish official has indicated this would indeed be the case.

If people think Scotland becoming independant would set Spain on some fearful mad mission to deny us EU membership, I would suggest that some facts are presented to back up these statements! Spain has had opportunities to use their veto powers, and not done so, in circumstances that are far more "interesting" to the Catalans than an independant Scotland is.

All this smells of FUD to me, with no substance to back it up.

ETA: Given the results so far of the poll, one of the most interesting things on this thread is how different the demographic on this board is, compared to the country as a whole!

[pete]

That said, I am all for indy2 but on 2 conditions.

1) as soon as it is agreed there will be an indy2 it must be held within 1 month.
2) If it is a no, all SNP politicians must resign immediately and sign a legal document stating they now have to stfu on indepence from now until the end of time.

There's not a lot wrong with that idea.

[kenny]

Panic at the disco! All this FUD has made me change my mind. I dont want to be a thicko any more. I thought I had a modecum of common sense, but clearly not....

I don't see Spain using their veto to prevent Scotland joining the EU, and to my knowledge, no Spanish official has indicated this would indeed be the case.

Just the other day. Before any jump in with "he never mentions veto" there has been plenty of indication the Spain and others in the Eu will not support an independent scotland.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... f-eu-queue

In the guardian as well, so must be true.

[istoo]

I think we are doing a brilliant job of polarizing a country, both sets of referendums have helped do this.
Politics aside, what its doing to society worries me more. Post Black Tuesday saw a gradual rise facism, polarised opinion. If we do or don't split from the UK, so nearly half the population will be pissed off... what does that create? In the fight for identity I feel we may loose it all together, at whatever level you choose to read into this.

Personally, I dont wholey agree with any one party, but closest to the Scottish Greens at this point in time. SNP has echoes of UKIP, get out, then what? But neither do i sit on the Conservative fence, but i wont rant on about Theresa May on a constant vendetta.

The last indy referendum did have good genuine open debate, I am all for that, but the tone with Brexit, across the board seemed to me to be a very different animal. Went beyond politics imho.

Where do i stand, being very honest finding factual information amoungst the raft of pish is unreal. The line between spin and factual is getting very blurry. We are into a generation of social media news, how this spins out will be anyone's guess.

[istoo]

It can be any way that anyone wants to twist it!

I'm currently looking forward to the plans of how Scotland makes revenue with the oil price less than half the SNP forecast figure and with decommissioning discussions dominating North Sea ops.

Financial Services, anyone?

Large scale manufacturing?

Electronics?

Maybe biotech?

No? Unsure?

Did anyone get am answer from the Headmaster of Europe about us joining their school after we're expelled from the UK? No word back as yet? Ah.

Like I say. Seeking facts and a few grown up answers. Not a great white hope.

That is not a positive outlook, and I'm always surprised to hear it from you as you're normally relentlessly cheerful.

The implication of this position is that you consider your country to be largely what? A dormitory region of England, surfing on their productivity?

I bet that's not really the case.

You're right. I am not positive about it.

I have been concerned about Scotland's productivity for a long time but it's a much wider matter than that. I believe that in a global economy you need scale. It sounds cheesy but "better together" does sum it up.

In a similar place Campbell, but together as what is also equally as vague. My mild tweak on that is as a relatively small population for our land mass we have resources, not just refereing to oil & gas. Farming, water, in a exponentially growing world population we have longer term sustainability for the core commodities. Whatever happens post brexit is going to be tough on every level, that alone will take a generation to level itself out. Another equally as large siesmic shift more often leans more towards collapse than sucesss...

[Rosssco]

I always hear the small population / large landmass / resources thing, but:

1) Small population / large landmass makes it more expensive to deliver public services, which the Barnett formula accounts for partly. Or you could say, why aren't the Russians minted - loads of land, and comparably small population. Answer being much of it is no use for farming or difficult to extract resources from, like much of our beautiful, but rugged country side..
2) It can be made sound like we have a lot of "potential" that is currently being stifled by being in the UK, but, what? And what restrictions are in place that we cannot take advantage of now? For example, the SG has twiddled their thumbs on onshore fracking for instance (an industry with directly transferable skills for our offshore sector), but they do nothing, despite scientific advice that its safe (no doubt to placate the Greens so they get their votes, which we'll see in the coming days )

In other news, May says "naw, no the noo.."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39293513

[istoo]

I always hear the small population / large landmass / resources thing, but:

1) Small population / large landmass makes it more expensive to deliver public services, which the Barnett formula accounts for partly. Or you could say, why aren't the Russians minted - loads of land, and comparably small population. Answer being much of it is no use for farming or difficult to extract resources from, like much of our beautiful, but rugged country side..
2) It can be made sound like we have a lot of "potential" that is currently being stifled by being in the UK, but, what? And what restrictions are in place that we cannot take advantage of now? For example, the SG has twiddled their thumbs on onshore fracking for instance (an industry with directly transferable skills for our offshore sector), but they do nothing, despite scientific advice that its safe (no doubt to placate the Greens so they get their votes, which we'll see in the coming days )

In other news, May says "naw, no the noo.."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39293513

1) Russia is the extreme, and not really the right comparison. To be fair the natural resource owners are minted, not as well distributed as it if for other similar positioned nations. We are much closer geopolitically to New Zealand, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland etc all seem to do quite well out of it. With similar population, area, and economically viable and sustainable resources. I see it as stripping back to first principles, in a hope for the best prepare for the world future world. I will read again but we were a net exporter last i checked. Yes there are other technologies that we 'could' exploit, but as it stands right now with some reshuffling we can use what we already have to better effect. Fraccing is a completely seperate topic, and not unique to the UK, but we already treading a fine line for the UKs entirely aging infrastructure. With a weakened currency the UK is already a target for aquisitions, i worry longer term about the bigger questions of who owns us? Shouldn't we?

[Corranga]

ETA: Given the results so far of the poll, one of the most interesting things on this thread is how different the demographic on this board is, compared to the country as a whole!

A bunch of very much predominantly guys (are there any females around here now?!) who are smart / resourceful / privileged enough to own a virtually uncompromising plastic sports car, most probably on top of another car, with a strong bias towards the North East and O+G industry.
SE is a lot of things, but representative of the Scottish population, we are not.

We've already seen the outcome of a close referendum result. I don't think enough has changed to warrant another, not to give a more diverse result, and the bitterness will be larger and last longer this time, whether it goes the other way - and roughly half of the country is dragged out of the UK against it's will because roughly half of the country wanted to leave due to being dragged out of the EU against it's will, by a government who chooses only to listen to half of it's citizens - or if it's the same, roughly half of the country will scream Tory and disown the other half having lost twice.

[Rosssco]

Istoo, yep, Russia was an extreme example, but used purely to highlight the (in my view) simplistic assumption that large landmass + small population = wealth generation. The US for example, has a much smaller landmass and much larger population than Russia, but is comparatively, the wealthiest. Why? because it has some of the largest and most fertile arable land on the planet, land connections to both the Atlantic and Pacific for trade, and a single federal government, with UNITED States which all use the same currency, laws (mostly) and basic education standards etc. etc. Their strength clearly comes from their unity and inter-connectedness, but I'm digressing.

With reference to Scotland, we have similarities with the countries noted, but many differences. I'd ask again, for evidence that we are under-exploting our natural resources - practically all the arable farmland has been used (unless you are proposing some form of subsistence farming / crofting??), viability for natural minerals and fossil fuels, as we know, as dictated by international pricing rather than political will, our offshore industry will hopefully continue for many years but its unlikely in the short-medium term to produce any meaningful gov. income, we've constructed the majority of viable hydro schemes (without adversely affecting the landscape in some 3-Gorges style thing), our onshore / offshore renewables is primarily subsidised by English energy consumers... Its not that we'd be much worse off, but other than fancy graphics on a poster of stuff we already have, NO ONE has yet to provide me with any evidence of all the "potential" that is somehow waiting to be exploited..

And yes, we are a net exporter, but to where..? The rest of the UK! So logically, we'd want to avoid any borders, currency restrictions, trade tariffs or getting into a 'race to the bottom' with them, surely?

[jason]

We've already seen the outcome of a close referendum result. I don't think enough has changed to warrant another, not to give a more diverse result, and the bitterness will be larger and last longer this time, whether it goes the other way - and roughly half of the country is dragged out of the UK against it's will because roughly half of the country wanted to leave due to being dragged out of the EU against it's will, by a government who chooses only to listen to half of it's citizens - or if it's the same, roughly half of the country will scream Tory and disown the other half having lost twice.

^ this

x1000


What's more, we have (rather recently!) seen the flaws of referendums illustrated oh so vividly. Division, binary options, irreversible decision, etc. Yet there's a desire to roll the dice on yet another??

[thinfourth]

ETA: Given the results so far of the poll, one of the most interesting things on this thread is how different the demographic on this board is, compared to the country as a whole!

A bunch of very much predominantly guys (are there any females around here now?!) who are smart / resourceful / privileged enough to own a virtually uncompromising plastic sports car, most probably on top of another car, with a strong bias towards the North East and O+G industry.
SE is a lot of things, but representative of the Scottish population, we are not.

.

And are exactly the kind of people that the cybernats want to drive out of scotland.

I'll be leaving the first chance i get.

So to the nat that said fcuk off back to England

That is what i will be doing despite being born in Scotland

[Rosssco]

We've already seen the outcome of a close referendum result. I don't think enough has changed to warrant another, not to give a more diverse result, and the bitterness will be larger and last longer this time, whether it goes the other way - and roughly half of the country is dragged out of the UK against it's will because roughly half of the country wanted to leave due to being dragged out of the EU against it's will, by a government who chooses only to listen to half of it's citizens - or if it's the same, roughly half of the country will scream Tory and disown the other half having lost twice.

^ this

x1000


What's more, we have (rather recently!) seen the flaws of referendums illustrated oh so vividly. Division, binary options, irreversible decision, etc. Yet there's a desire to roll the dice on yet another??

Alex Salmond on Referendums, January 1992:

"With regards to referendums, you have got to learn to accept a democratic result. There are very few countries in the world that, having had a referendum, do not go by the majority that took place in that vote."

[istoo]

Istoo, yep, Russia was an extreme example, but used purely to highlight the (in my view) simplistic assumption that large landmass + small population = wealth generation. The US for example, has a much smaller landmass and much larger population than Russia, but is comparatively, the wealthiest. Why? because it has some of the largest and most fertile arable land on the planet, land connections to both the Atlantic and Pacific for trade, and a single federal government, with UNITED States which all use the same currency, laws (mostly) and basic education standards etc. etc. Their strength clearly comes from their unity and inter-connectedness, but I'm digressing.

With reference to Scotland, we have similarities with the countries noted, but many differences. I'd ask again, for evidence that we are under-exploting our natural resources - practically all the arable farmland has been used (unless you are proposing some form of subsistence farming / crofting??), viability for natural minerals and fossil fuels, as we know, as dictated by international pricing rather than political will, our offshore industry will hopefully continue for many years but its unlikely in the short-medium term to produce any meaningful gov. income, we've constructed the majority of viable hydro schemes (without adversely affecting the landscape in some 3-Gorges style thing), our onshore / offshore renewables is primarily subsidised by English energy consumers... Its not that we'd be much worse off, but other than fancy graphics on a poster of stuff we already have, NO ONE has yet to provide me with any evidence of all the "potential" that is somehow waiting to be exploited..

And yes, we are a net exporter, but to where..? The rest of the UK! So logically, we'd want to avoid any borders, currency restrictions, trade tariffs or getting into a 'race to the bottom' with them, surely?

ARGH, spent considerably more than a lunch hour writing a reply only to be timed out..

Summary:

USA v Russia, yep i see your unity point, yet with some irony, we have just voted to leave the worlds second biggest trading body. Scotland indeed exports to the UK, who in turn exports to the EU. Its the latter relationaship (which is yet to be clearly defined) which i would like to see maintained personally.

I never suggested we are under-exploiting. On the contrary, if we are a net exporter of multiple resources, it would suggest we are managing just fine. And that is really my point.

Agree farming need serious work in Scotland/UK/EU. Food and water have to become more valuable commodities as world population targets hit 10bn by 2050. However, I don't believe its unworkable.

Hydro schemes are the mechanism for pump storage that windfarms rely on. The UK government agrees a buy back electricity from the investors of its energy projects. The investment isn't consumers, its PFI and sometimes EDF support, the UK has been doing this now for some time to rebuild the aging infrastructure. Have a look at the buy back rate for Hinkley point, that is well documented. More interestingly if you look at the IEA's wonderful piece of data visualization on historical global resource usage. The UK has moved from a net exporter in 2008 to a net importer in 2015, which includes O&G. Last I read Scotland exports its energy also.

Evidence, i completely agree. It is getting harder to find and even harder to validate. But worst of all its summed up in posts above, nearly half the population of Scotland will not get the answer they wanted, neither did half of the UK. That echo chamber of negativity does not make for unity. And this is where I am stuck. People make places as much as places make people.

Shortened a lot, but hope it answers your questions.

[Rosssco]

Thanks Istoo.

I agree, from the perspective of trade, leaving the EU will likely have negative consequences, UNLESS, there is a realistic and concerted effort to truly diversify and grow in markets beyond the EU. But there a number of key differences between the UK / EU and Scot / UK. Namely, we don't have anywhere like the inter-connectedness with the EU (primarily a trading partner), with a different currency, some / many different standards (from left-hooker cars, to plugs etc.), language etc. The UK on the other hand is effectively the same in probably 99% of these things (as it stands), so creating barriers here make much less sense (IMO), and, bluntly, two wrongs don't make a right!

My point really on resources, is that what we have now, is basically, what Scotland will have in the future. There is no 'Indy Bonus' waiting round the corner, so its incumbent on nationalists to explain how they propose to diversify the economy and grown the economy at least sufficient to plug the particularly big budget deficit we currently run. I haven't seen any sensible analysis that has answered these questions, so by default, you'd be voting put Scottish public services under huge pressure without a way out..

Yep, most renewables now work under CfD (Contract for Difference - I used to work in the renewables industry), meaning, as you say, the government agrees a minimum pricing level. This is applicable to both new nuclear and renewables (at different levels). Right now that future liability lies with the UK, but presumably, any liabilities would transfer to the Scot gov. on Indy. In addition to this though, a percentage of your energy bill accounts for 'Green' electricity. Right now UK-wide energy companies distribute this over UK energy consumers. However in the future, this burden may fall to Scottish only consumers (can you imagine English consumers being happy subsiding a break-away Scottish renewables development, almost certain way to loose customers..).

I think the big issue is also - how would the 55% (or a large portion thereof) of No voters (many of whom have a 'British' feeling or connection) feel when their majority vote is over-turned a few years later and they "dragged" (to use Nat speak) out of the UK on what is essentially, a politically concocted 2nd referendum.. I don't think anything positive will come of that at all, and will only serve to harden divisions that for many haven't disappeared since 2014, especially, if as seems likely, peoples living standards suffer in the short term.

[c8rkh]

On a 5.5 hour drive back home to Perthshire today from a holiday in India the only topic of conversation was where we are likely to move to in England and when. We both have decided we can't put up any more with the constant hostility and the whinging and the whining from the SNP and their supporters. We have friends in other parts of Scotland who are thinking the same. It really saddens me to think it might come to this but the constant uncertainty, the bitterness, the bile and the nastiness is really starting to get to us. I've even been called a traitor at a checkout in Tesco by another customer because the "own Brand" of sparkling water I had put in my trolley was "English Sparkling Water". FFS, to me, it was just the cheapest on the shelf as it all bloody well tastes the same to me so why pay extra!

As of next month my tax bill is starting to get larger than my colleagues in rUK who do the same job (we work for a French company) and I can only see this trend increasing as someone will need to foot the bill for the cost of Independence and it will not be the rUK. How many more mobile, professional, higher rate tax payers will decide to go? The planes to London on Monday mornings and evenings are full of people like us travelling to do our jobs in England so it will save us a lot of hassle, be cheaper, and more pleasant no doubt in terms of not having to deal with the abuse, to just move. What will this do to the tax burden on those who remain.

Very sad times indeed to be honest from a personal perspective.