Views on Independence.

[Lazydonkey]

I'm not really one for reading red tops but I pick up the record every Tuesday as it's more interesting than reading the BA magazine..... I'm not proud of it but there you go

.... Interesting that their editorial this morning starts with the line "anyone hoping for some clarity over Scotland currency plans from Alex Salmond yesterday would have been sorely disappointed." it doesn't get more supportive as it goes on.

As I say I don't read it every morning but this seems to be a real shift from one of the biggest selling papers in Scotland.

Are you on drugs? Their editorial line for as long as I can remember has been to attack the SNP and back Labour.

The devote an entire page to that horrible McApline woman every day with no sub line to alow the reader to understand her background and bias and they are resolutely anti-tory.......like i said i only read it once a week but they certainly haven't seemed anti-independence until now.

EDIT : It's apparently a weekly column, but she's still hateful and if they were resolutely anti-independence they wouldn't give her air time

[BiggestNizzy]

The annoying thing about the EU bit is that it's easy enough to get a definative answer on this from the EU itself.

David Cameron asks the EU and they will give official legal clarification. If Cameron is correct then they will say no he will win and it will shut Salmond up once and for all.

[tut]

Good to see the point of view from a retailer Cowan, i hope the majority feel the same as you do.

I also hope that there are enough voters that think the same as I do, and are not prepared to take the chance. I have been taking risks most of my life but they were mostly calculated ones. i had a damned good idea of what the outcome would be whether good or bad, but not on this one.

tut

[woody]

I'm not really one for reading red tops but I pick up the record every Tuesday as it's more interesting than reading the BA magazine..... I'm not proud of it but there you go

.... Interesting that their editorial this morning starts with the line "anyone hoping for some clarity over Scotland currency plans from Alex Salmond yesterday would have been sorely disappointed." it doesn't get more supportive as it goes on.

As I say I don't read it every morning but this seems to be a real shift from one of the biggest selling papers in Scotland.

Are you on drugs? Their editorial line for as long as I can remember has been to attack the SNP and back Labour.

The devote an entire page to that horrible McApline woman every day with no sub line to alow the reader to understand her background and bias and they are resolutely anti-tory.......like i said i only read it once a week but they certainly haven't seemed anti-independence until now.

EDIT : It's apparently a weekly column, but she's still hateful and if they were resolutely anti-independence they wouldn't give her air time

As you know my old man was on the editorial team until he "retired" in the summer. It's usually the Sun and Sport in the toilets at work and I certainly wouldn't part with money for the Record so I see less of it than you.

[campbell]

Chap on breakfast news today explained that Scottish Financial Services industry means much more to Scotland than to rUK.

How much of that will remain after the Tartan Curtain is raised?

(Was in context of loss of The Pound), to be clear)

[tut]

You have your own company Campbell.

Have you decided which way to vote or are you waiting until later?

tut

[campbell]

Tut,

Have felt "No" since the very start. And I'm talking 1999 here.

Whilst I've come around to the benefits of devolution, I'm a firm "No" for full independence.

I don't believe it's in my family's interests - short or long term. And I absolutely don't see it in my business interests either. And the two are very tightly interlinked.

Maybe 90% of Rathmhor services were "exported" to rUK last year. And whilst I am currently driving that down towards 50% for 2014, I am uncertain of the challenges a new market border will bring.

Sure, if Scotland is able to remain in the EU, then logic dictates that border will be thin or unnoticed.

But if it is unable? That's a big issue for me.

Or if it's able, but cannot keep the Pound? Again, a big issue as I perceive it. Who from rUK is going to engage my Peoples Republic of Scotland company when competitors in rUK are simpler to transact with?

But I'm a great believer in taking charge of one's own destiny, so in event of a "Yes", I will establish an offshore bank account for the company (in Carlisle or London). And move the family south, if needs be. Which would be a wrench. But I will not be dictated to by Wee Eck and his merry men.

Anyway, for now, I await the outcome of the willy-waving over The Pound with interest.

Hope the above answers your question.

Campbell

[robin]

As far as the pound goes England doesn't own it.

I think you want to research the legal position on that - the pound in your pocket is nothing more than a promise to pay.

Actually, that promise is hollow.

(a) it's a promise to pay in what form? another pound note to replace the one you hand over? Since the abandoning of the gold standard, there is no true value beyond trust.
(b) It's not a promise to restrict the total number of pounds in circulation - i.e. they can (and do) print as many as they need; so as a percentage of national wealth it is not particularly useful either.

The truth about currency is mind bending - it only has one real purpose - to act as a moderately stable representation of value to allow people to swap stuff without bartering. The longer you think about it, the more confused you will get!

"So far the UK (the rest of the UK) has had to guarantee that promise after Alex threatened to default."

The UK cannot default on its debt (which is different from failing to honour the empty promise printed on the pound note); most of its debt is valued in sterling; so they could repay it simply by printing the requisite money and handing it over. Of course that would trigger massive inflation and a substantial reduction in the exchange rate of our currency - actually quite handy for exports

The truth is Scotland is not in the position to guarantee any currency at the moment - and it would be a long and painful process to generate the reserves and market confidence needed to start one.

See above - no country technically guarantees its currency any more - they are all take-it-or-leave it bits of paper. The difference is that many countries have sovereign debt valued in foreign currency, whereas the UK and US have sovereign debt in their native currency.

The banks are underpinned by a "lender of last resort" (Bank of England) which is what Scotland would not have without a currency union - it prevents banking collapse, but only by printing money in a controlled way (they call it quantitative easing).

Cheers,
Robin

[rossybee]

As ive said before, in order to make me vote yes I need facts and decisions.

So far we might get the pound, probably not though.... It would depends on all three major political parties changing their mind.

We might get into the European union.... We might continue with the concessions we currently have.... We might not.... Who knows....

On the basis of that I'm very unlikely to vote yes and hope for the best.

I need facts and definite answers but as every month passes things become less and less definite.
We are asked by the yes campaign to ignore what people have said. Have faith. They will change their mind. Trust us.

No thanks.

Almost exactly sums up my thoughts.

Anything I read or see on tv or hear on the radio seems to have a bias...

[robin]

You aren't going to get any definite answers to these things as they can only be answered when the stakes are on the table; that cannot happen without a yes vote ... which means those of you needing facts will need to decide which of the two options represents lower risk (and I imagine that would be a No vote though I am not trying to influence you).

I would point out that in reality both paths are unknown -

post-Yes we have a poker game to see who gets what and how - pretty much everything is up for grabs - obviously a big gamble - though, ironically, currency union does limit the scope for "using the levers"; meanwhile no currency union means using other country's currencies which brings its own problems, but does allow the Scottish Government to raise as much debt as institutional investors are prepared to lend it - though they would need to be converted into whatever currency we adopt - lots of issues.

post-No we have the possibility of leaving Europe as part of Dave's referendum and the prospect of a substantial change in public sector finance as a result of a change to the Barnett (sp?) formula. Sure you can chuck out the Tories and vote in Labour and maybe they will reverse a Barnett change, but probably they will not as it would mean taking public money away from wherever it had been allocated to by the Tories. Also the currency we are all so attached to is very likely to suffer its own crisis in the near future - what if our economy doesn't grow fast enough to allow us to start to pay down the debt - that could easily happen, especially if new borrowing is on substantially less favourable terms than current borrowing.

Cheers,
Robin

[campbell]

Oh dear. "We're all doomed". As that old Scottish bloke on Dad's Army used to say quite often.

[tut]

I don't know how many self employed members we have on here Campbell, but I presume that many will feel the same way as you.

My vote is also family first, Clares response I have pasted in below, but both the boys will almost certainly vote yes.

"I can't vote because non-residents aren't entitled to! If any of you vote yes we are no longer friends! It is a ridiculous bloody concept and we are far better off as we are. If the yes vote goes through I genuinely don't know whether I'd opt for a Scottish or English passport (assuming I'd be allowed the choice given my heritage). As a British citizen I have excellent diplomatic relations around the world. Would I still have that with a Scottish passport or would I need to apply for a visa to go everywhere in the same way Indians do?? Plus the time and hassle and mess it will take to sort everything out. Will I need a new Scottish driving licence?

Scotland get free eye checks, free dental care and free prescriptions. The English pay for it. Bet you anything you like we lose the lot within a year of 'independence' cos we won't be able to afford it. Leave things as they are - it works fine.

Tell Ian to stop being a moron - he's a British citizen - and it's only the uneducated Scots that should be voting for such a ridiculous concept.

FYI - even Scot's living in England aren't entitled to vote - that includes our soldiers who are posted there. So, a French student can vote but the rest of us can't. If expats were allowed to vote it would definitely be a no... we are all educated enough to see the advantages of a union! Salmond's a know and needs no more power than he already has!

Clare"

[tut]

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but what is an independent Scotlands S&P credit rating likely to be, certainly not AAA.

That would make borrowing very expensive.

tut

[j2 lot]

Well said Clare
Christmas is going to be interesting if the family are at your house this year Tut

[BigD]

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but what is an independent Scotlands S&P credit rating likely to be, certainly not AAA.

That would make borrowing very expensive.

tut

On this note I see the government has today announced that they will allow Scotland to raise bonds and it states that obviously the rates will be higher as the risks will be higher.

"The government has granted Scotland the power to issue its own bonds in what the chancellor has described to be a ‘historic move’.

The Treasury has said the Scottish will be permitted to issue up to £2.2 billion in debt to fund investments in various infrastructure projects.

The idea was first mooted in an amendment to the Scotland Bill in June 2011 and today’s announcement - which is ahead of schedule - comes as the nation prepares for September’s referendum on independence.

However, the Treasury warned the cost of issuing Scottish bonds would be ‘significantly’ higher than the UK because of the higher ‘credit risk’ north of the border.

Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury, said: ‘It will of course be up to the Scottish government to manage their borrowing, but this is complemented by the tax powers in the Scotland Act providing the Scottish government with an independent source of revenue to support borrowing costs.’

Chancellor George Osborne added: ‘[It is a] historic moment for Scotland, a country where the economy is growing with the government's long term economic plan. 'Being able to issue its own bonds gives Scotland new powers and new responsibility, within the security of the UK.’"

My worry in independence (from a totally selfish p.o.v.) is that we would have to build a whole new Financial Services, Taxation and Regulation structure which would come at a huge cost and would mean that we have a different system to the rUK. Would be a lot more complicated and would providers who cross borders really want to work in both worlds when they already have a setup for one?

Good point Robin about not having actual facts and probably never getting them as you say until it is a yes vote there would be no way to determine the answers.