Weather forecasts.

[Kelvin]

I have always wondered why the BBC (met office) need so many front of camera forecast presenters. You could deliver the national and regional forecasts with a much smaller team of people.

[David]

I have always wondered why the BBC (met office) need so many front of camera forecast presenters. You could deliver the national and regional forecasts with a much smaller team of people.

Well they cover more or less 24/7, and that's a minimum of six people. Then multiply that by News channel, world service, regional cover, radio, and the numerous other TV services they provide forecasts for, you start to see the team isn't that big. BBC Scotland sits across the weather studio feed most evenings and they are pretty much at it all the time recording, or doing live bulitins.

[martins]

It's been an interest of mine since my flying instructor days. I would often start my day with a brief at the local Met office ( before the internet!). After a while, and with some local knowledge, you can predict surprisingly accurately the weather. But when, and where, that weather is can be more of a problem. It all about 'resolution' and, in a small mountainous country like Scotland, there's simply not enough detail in most public forecasts. But ask a forecaster for a specific location and they'll get it spot on most of the time.

Could not have put it better.

Weather forecasting is all about resolution. Build a forecast model with sufficient resolution for a specific area with access to long term proven historical data and it will invariably be accurate. This is the same as having an experienced forecaster working in a single area providing forecast information for the same location year after year. Both the model and the human will have a real feel for the forecast they are providing.

In this day and age everyone expects their forecast to be accurte for their exact location and time and the forecst companies to some degree encourage this as they promote new modelling techniques and capabilities. The bottom line however is that, especially on a land mass like Scotland, which has a maritime climate, with varied topography and fast moving weather systems, you will never get an accurate forecast unless it is being provided at a high cost for an individual location, and even then it is not guaranteed.

Forecasting at sea is easier that it is on land as there is no land in the way to interfere with the winds. So if you believe the weather forecasts on land are poor, go to sea and they will be better. If you enjoy water sports (dont go there Tut!!!) chances are you do not care too much if it rains or not as you are alread wet so the forecast accuracy you will look for is for the wind and sea and so long as that is good you will be satified.

In the commercial world the solution is simple. The more money you pay the more accurate the forecast will be. If you want to build a windmill farm off the coast of Aberdeen or anchor up a rig in the North Sea do not do it on the basis of the forecast the BBC put out each evening or you hear on the radio, or even worse read on your bl--dy phone. Pay a company to provide a forecast for the area in qustion or even better pay a company to provide you with a forecaster on location. Chances are the more you pay the better the forecast and the less the loss, if what you are doing is weather dependent.

There is of course a far cheaper solution.

Look out the bl--dy window and stop looking at your phone screen. Use your experience and gut feeling and if that fails remember is is not bad weather just inadequate clothing.

And finally.........



None of the above applies to Knockhill as that place has a climate all of its own......

M

[martins]

Forgot to add....

My avatar was taken on a day in April this year when all of the forecasts for the east coast were calling for sunny with the odd passing rain shower with snow possible over the hills above 1500 feet.

The picture was taken in Aberdeen about 150ft above sea level in the late afternoon.

M

[Alistair]

Look out the bl--dy window and stop looking at your phone screen. Use your experience and gut feeling and if that fails remember is is not bad weather just inadequate clothing.

M

Very well put! And indeed what we reverted to this year! Our amateur forecast for North Berwick was spot on!

I wonder if the BBC would be interested in our services?

[Kelvin]

Without trying too hard I reckon I could count at least 20 front of camera forecasters and I bet it's higher than this. Add in all the other folk and the total will be far higher still. I don't know what the cost to run the Met Office is although I understand it has to run commercially nowadays. I wonder how much of their revenue came from the Beeb and the loss of it probably indicates that it was far too expensive for what it is.

[campbell]

Scotland forecasting was "centralised" to London a few years ago. Around the time Heather the Weather left (she's a genuis btw, as well as easy on the eye). So the microclimate effect has really diluted the quality of forecasting for our wee backwater.

I use these guys a lot, and like the detail. Never tracked how accurate though!

http://www.mwis.org.uk/

Another vote for dress appropriately and get on with it (but I respect those whose livelihoods or safety depends on accurate weather info, and you have my sympathies).