Independence

[Rusty]

Adam, seems a big gamble no??

I just want a decent excuse to move out here!

[Mikie711]

It's all a question of how much Scotland will keep after independence. We are fairly self sufficient on power and water but a lot of industry and commerce is "encouraged" with tax breaks and grants from Westminster, how many would remain. The biggest question is control of the tax pounds from the oil industry which are in British territorial waters. Tricky legal problem to sort out and no clear president. With control then it's a definite goer, without quite possibly still a goer but not without extra tax revenue to fill the gap.

For the record it would get my vote as long as we stayed in the EU. EU funding would ease the strain considerably as I would imaging we would have to take on a portion of the national debt.

[David]

Looks like SPA Design are ahead of the game http://www.spa-uk.co.uk/dealers/

[j2 lot]

I have lots to contribute to this but unfortunately I would be violating my conditions of employment if I said all I wanted too so I will need to sit it out and curse at the screen when I disagree.

[tut]

Interesting that you have said much in support of AS and that you have voted SNP but not where you stand on the independence issue. For it or against it Tut?

Will not know until it is spelt out in front of me of what the pros and cons are. However we should be proud to be British:-

tut

Being British is about driving in a German car to an Irish pub for a Belgian beer, then travelling home, grabbing an Indian curry or a Turkish kebab on the way, to sit on Swedish furniture and watch American shows on a Japanese TV.
And the most British thing of all?
Suspicion of all things foreign!

Only in Britain can a pizza get to your house faster than an ambulance.
Only in Britain do supermarkets make sick people walk all the way to the back of the shop to get their prescriptions while healthy people can buy cigarettes at the front.
Only in Britain do people order double cheeseburgers, large fries and a DIET coke.

Only in Britain do banks leave both doors open and chain the pens to the counters.
Only in Britain do we leave cars worth thousands of pounds on the drive and lock our junk and cheap lawn mower in the garage.
Only in Britain do we use answering machines to screen calls and then have call waiting so we won't miss a call from someone we didn't want to talk to in the first place.

Only in Britain are there disabled parking places in front of a skating rink.

NOT TO MENTION..
3 Brits die each year testing if a 9v battery works on their tongue.
142 Brits were injured in 1999 by not removing all pins from new shirts.
58 Brits are injured each year by using sharp knives instead of screwdrivers.
31 Brits have died since 1996 by watering their Christmas tree while the fairy lights were plugged in.
19 Brits have died in the last 3 years believing that Christmas decorations were chocolate.
British Hospitals reported 4 broken arms last year after Xmas cracker-pulling accidents.
18 Brits had serious burns in 2000 trying on a new jumper with a lit cigarette in their mouth.
A massive 543 Brits were admitted to A&E in the last two years after trying to open bottles of beer with their teeth.
5 Brits were injured last year in accidents involving out-of-control Scalextric cars.
and finally...
In 2000 eight Brits were admitted to hospital with fractured skulls incurred whilst throwing up into the toilet.

[Gareth]

What does it really mean?

Own:

NHS?
Military?
Police Force?
Tax system?

Soooo many hurdles.
Those who have suggested we would keep the oil. Well that's not going to happen (ask the Argentinians) and even if it did...wow, we have some doah for 50 years.
I did hear that apparently in Scotland those who voted for SNP is less than a 1/3. Don't know how that works as SNP are currently in "power". Maybe it was a poll of who would vote for independence.

I just hope, if it does go to a vote...and the people vote no...that Alex 'Robert the Bruce' Salmond drops it.
I also think it would cause a huge divide between Scots and the English/Welsh.

[Mr Momo]

Just found this on Google (one of many):

http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/12/1/505.pdf

Worth a read for the legal minded.....

From what I can see, you would have to goback to the 1707 Act of Union to confirm original land borders and then potentially use the international maritime boundaries laws to agree/define a boundary.

[Mikie711]

I did hear that apparently in Scotland those who voted for SNP is less than a 1/3. Don't know how that works as SNP are currently in "power". Maybe it was a poll of who would vote for independence.

Because the turn out is generally less than 50%.

[Mikie711]

Phil, Scotland wouldn't fair to badly regardless of which boundary was imposed under international law. As Gareth pointed out though there is a lot more to throw into the mix besides.
How you even begin to sort through all of the issues when trying to separate 2 countries after so long is beyond me, the more and more you think about it the more and more issues get added to the list.
Disagree as to weather Salmond and his cronies have the where for all to run a country, there have been some right muppets in charge of the UK in the past. And for those that leave because of independence there will be those that come back because of independence.
I have no idea how it would turn out but it has got to be better being in control of your own country than be ruled from another IMHO.

[Mr Momo]

90% of the battle will be to convince people that it is better than the status quo - this is the case for most change....

I guess it needs to be confirmed that most of these issues Gareth raised would be payed for and run by the Scottish Government (Police / NHS etc already operated separately, but funded by Barnett Formula - Tax ???? Guess there would be a Scottish version of HMRC run from East Kilbride tax office ?)
Queen would be Head of State

Issues:
Defence / Army - what does Scotland keep (Scottish Forces), what do we give back (ships/subs..) ?
Nuclear Power - guess that's a toughie.....

[campbell]

Worryingly I find myself agreeing with Gareth. On that basis alone it's time to leave.

All the same, gaining independence is going to cost a fortune and cause a heck of a ruckus (sp) and distract a lot of people from getting on and fixing things that actually matter. And I doubt my children's generation would get much out of it...maybe their kids might but as Scotty says I'm here for a good time not a long time so I'm going to be selfish about it, end of.

I was never keen on devolution but in broad terms it seems to be working so why not leave things alone now. This way everyone gets a slice of the action. Acid test will be Scotland's emergence (or otherwise) from the current "recession". Where will Scotland be at that point? If perceived as truly better placed than other major parts of UK, then Wee Eck will probably have his wish. Because people's spirits will be riding high on how well a devolved Scotland "managed itself". OTOH, if we are in a worse place, Wee Eck will also probably have his wish. Because spirits will be low on the grounds that Westminster f*cked it up for the innocent yet rebellious Scots and so we may as well have a go at running the place ourselves.

Yawn.

In practical terms, there are indeed considerable obstacles to overcome and I simply can't see the business case. In fact this is the most worrisome thing of all - more or less NO-ONE will ever get to see the business case, in neutral terms, because it's all fecking politics and posturing and spin. Yet if enough are taken in by it all, we are surely doomed.

OK so are we having an SE Referendum? Creating a vote on a thread is very easy indeed. But what will the QUESTION be

Campbell

PS - if we become independent, does that mean we can call ourselves just "Elises"? Change our domain to http://www.elises.com.sc?!

[kenny]

Utter insanity, we will be bankrupt within 10 years.

We have no energy security, Salmonds belief in renewables is totally deluded. We currently generate 13% via hydro which is the only viable renewable, that can be extended to 18% but that's it. Fcking windymills aren't going to make up the missing 82% when a nice arctic high pressure system settles over the country and we freeze our balls off with no electricity for days/weeks. Salmond has shortsightedly ruled out nuclear and the eco-wombles will stop any new coal or gas fired power stations. So that leaves us importing energy at great cost to the tax payer.

Do you think they will let us walk away without taking a share of the national debt?
What about the armed forces, who gets that?
What about our disproportionately high public sector workforce?

If we do vote for independence then most likely we will spend the next 10 years arguing about who gets what, in the end we will all (Scots, English, Welsh & N. Irish) be much worse off.

Post stolen from Pistonheads, but it's nail>>head

An issue for the Scottish is that no country has ever changed currency and not had inflation. The Scottish economy is not currently well suited to coping with a sudden spike in inflation and the upwards jolt of their new interest rates that would occur. There is also the matter of the new credit rating for independent Scotland? This could be very poor meaning that borrowing costs spiral rapidly out of control.

The solution would be to join the Euro to obtain funding stability, but in essence this is worse currency change which all previous new members have suffered enormour inflation on the back of. And at the end of the day they would be swapping from being part of the UK and having quite a large say in matters to being a satelite of the EU with very little weight.

There is also the problem that Scotland has no relevant financial services sector. Their largest banks went bust and are now owned by the UK taxpayers, they couldn't afford to buy them back. The fund management industry is not there to service local wealth but mainly UK, so what will happen to this over time?

Nor is industry a key element of the economy. In terms of classification, you would tend to group Scotland in as a fishing/farming/agricultural economy much like Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece et al were/are. Industry takes time to build up and as Ireland found the rapid, synthetic growth of a financial services sector will have powerful ramifications.

The services industry contains a lot of business from England, such as various financial back offices. It may prove very difficult for firms to maintain back offices in a separate country operating under different regulatory bodies etc. Plus, there will be the cultural tendency to put this type of business back into England.

Tourism is important but again, difficult to expand.

It is inconceivable to allow Devolution Lite. The whole of the Western World has learnt harshly the costs of allowing a country to control its own finances while being underwritten by another. It has to be full devolution.

Can the Scottish people make full devolution work? Well, there is absolutely no credible reason to suggest they couldn't.

Will it be easy? No, it will be immensely hard as the initial shortcomings will be covered by increasing debt until the burdon of that debt leads to a re-basing. There will be a lot of blood and guts before it all settles down.

To reiterate, if you vote for independence you are consigning the country to the kind of financial ruin that will make the greeks look like very responsible fiscal conservatives.

[Homer]

Two videos below answer a few of the questions raised, and are a great example of the personality that is winning AS a lot of followers.

Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRGbie2ArOg
Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8mdh1Wg6pk

[Sanjøy]

Some articles to consider, granted I went looking for negatives not positives.

Scotland has a population of 5,222,100 (2010 estimate).
"There were 575,600 people employed in the public sector in Scotland in the first quarter of this year, down from 587,200 in the same quarter last year", Scotsman June 2011

"Official figures found that 216,000 people were jobless between October and December", BBC Feb 2011

Glasgow is Scotlands largest city.
"One in seven Glaswegians on disability benefit. The number of Glaswegians too sick to work is nearly double the national average. A report by the Scottish Observatory for Work and Health (SOWH) found that 13.6 per cent of working-age people in the city claimed incapacity benefit, the main sickness allowance, in 2008.
By contrast, only 6.9 per cent of adults in Edinburgh claimed the 80-a-week payment – now called the employment support allowance. Across the whole of the UK, the average figure was 7.1 per cent.
The report also revealed Glasgow had more new claimants taking up the benefit in 2008 than any other British city. Some 3.2 per cent of Glaswegians began claiming it in 2008", Scotsman Jan 2010

"5000 Scots shipyard jobs saved as new super warship deal is signed." Daily Ranger June 2008

"Scots jobs 'saved' by historic defence treaties. Last month, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg visited Rosyth to announce that the Government's 5.2 billion aircraft carrier project would go ahead, but fears have continued over maintenance contracts for the new ships. Under the treaty, Rosyth could play a key part in maintaining the joint French-British carrier fleet." Scotsman Nov 2010

"David Cameron: I’ve saved 150,000 Scottish finance-sector jobs. DAVID Cameron has insisted he did not veto a new European Union treaty to save just “a square mile in London”, but to protect 150,000 jobs in Scotland’s financial services sector." Scotsman Dec 2011

Drop in Scots students applying for university places. There has been a 15.4% drop in applications from those living in Scotland to study in England from 2012. Scots are also seeking places at Scottish institutions, with a 10.2% drop." BBC Oct 2011.

2p

[Mikie711]

Utter insanity, we will be bankrupt within 10 years.

We have no energy security, Salmonds belief in renewables is totally deluded. We currently generate 13% via hydro which is the only viable renewable, that can be extended to 18% but that's it. Fcking windymills aren't going to make up the missing 82% when a nice arctic high pressure system settles over the country and we freeze our balls off with no electricity for days/weeks. Salmond has shortsightedly ruled out nuclear and the eco-wombles will stop any new coal or gas fired power stations. So that leaves us importing energy at great cost to the tax payer.

Do you think they will let us walk away without taking a share of the national debt?
What about the armed forces, who gets that?
What about our disproportionately high public sector workforce?

If we do vote for independence then most likely we will spend the next 10 years arguing about who gets what, in the end we will all (Scots, English, Welsh & N. Irish) be much worse off.

Post stolen from Pistonheads, but it's nail>>head

An issue for the Scottish is that no country has ever changed currency and not had inflation. The Scottish economy is not currently well suited to coping with a sudden spike in inflation and the upwards jolt of their new interest rates that would occur. There is also the matter of the new credit rating for independent Scotland? This could be very poor meaning that borrowing costs spiral rapidly out of control.

The solution would be to join the Euro to obtain funding stability, but in essence this is worse currency change which all previous new members have suffered enormour inflation on the back of. And at the end of the day they would be swapping from being part of the UK and having quite a large say in matters to being a satelite of the EU with very little weight.

There is also the problem that Scotland has no relevant financial services sector. Their largest banks went bust and are now owned by the UK taxpayers, they couldn't afford to buy them back. The fund management industry is not there to service local wealth but mainly UK, so what will happen to this over time?

Nor is industry a key element of the economy. In terms of classification, you would tend to group Scotland in as a fishing/farming/agricultural economy much like Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece et al were/are. Industry takes time to build up and as Ireland found the rapid, synthetic growth of a financial services sector will have powerful ramifications.

The services industry contains a lot of business from England, such as various financial back offices. It may prove very difficult for firms to maintain back offices in a separate country operating under different regulatory bodies etc. Plus, there will be the cultural tendency to put this type of business back into England.

Tourism is important but again, difficult to expand.

It is inconceivable to allow Devolution Lite. The whole of the Western World has learnt harshly the costs of allowing a country to control its own finances while being underwritten by another. It has to be full devolution.

Can the Scottish people make full devolution work? Well, there is absolutely no credible reason to suggest they couldn't.

Will it be easy? No, it will be immensely hard as the initial shortcomings will be covered by increasing debt until the burdon of that debt leads to a re-basing. There will be a lot of blood and guts before it all settles down.

To reiterate, if you vote for independence you are consigning the country to the kind of financial ruin that will make the greeks look like very responsible fiscal conservatives.

The PH post is very eloquently written, however he completely missed the energy industry and specifically theoil industry which is worth billions in tax revenue which would go some way to balancing the books.
As a note of interest there is a similar sized country to Scotland which has the highest standard of living in the world, one of the most stable currency and is one of the wealthiest with cash to burn. Norway.